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Despite Delays Corn Crop Could Be A Record

by Mike Austin

Despite getting the crop in late and then lagging in growing degree days the USDA is still projecting a record corn crop for 2013. According to the seasons first in field survey by NASS, we are looking at a possible corn crop of 13.8 billion bushels, which would be 28% larger than last years drought stricken crop. The USDA is also projecting a soybean crop at 3.26 billion bushels, 8% higher than last year.

Now even though these are large numbers they are also smaller than last months' estimate and has resulted in the USDA changing its price forecast for this coming marketing year as well. The price estimate for corn has been raised a dime to $4.90 per bushel, while the bean price was increased to an average price of $11.30 per bushel. The USDA is also forecasting the price of wheat to average $7.00 per bushel.

As for the latest progress report for the crops, both corn and soybeans are rated 64% good to excellent and 8% poor to very poor. Both crops, but especially the corn crop could use some growing degree units and both crops could use more rain. It is because of both the condition of the crop and the fact that so much of the crop was planted late, that even USDA officials say we have to take these latest production estimates with a grain of salt. If we continue to have a cool August followed by an early September frost then its highly unlikely we'll reach these production estimates. So once again mom nature looks to be the final determining factor on how big and at what value the 2013 crop will really be.